CHELTENHAM
200 > swincombe flame 2.8 NAP > 1pt
235 > take of shocs 4.2 > 3pts
310 > francesa 4.9 (ixora 17.1) > 3pts
345 > billie magern 4.4 > 3pts
420 > all the kings horses 5.3 > 4pts
455 > mister matt 4.5 > 3pts
530 > glorious twelfth 2.98 > 2pts
NEWMARKET
150 > tassel 2.1 > 1pt
225 > hill street 7.6 > 5pts
300 > entifaadha 9 (alkazim 19) > 5pts
335 > sirius prospect 5.1 (tiddliwinks 23) > 4pts
410 > crius 5.8 > 4pts
445 > twice over 2.2 NAP > 1pt
520 > salacia 5.2 > 4pts
550 > aazif 5.1 > 4pts
WOLVES
605 > black cadillac 2.46 NAP *** > 1pt
635 > available 2.44 > 1pt
705 > francis albert 12 > 2pts
735 > eshaab 2.82 > 1pt
805 > zefooha 5.2 > 4pts
835 > always ends well 7.2> 5pts
905 > cheery cat 10 (cadmium loch 20) > 5pts
RIPON
210 > x
245 > x
320 > thunderball 10.5 (dickie le davoir 15.5) > 5pts
355 > hajras 3.1 (zakreet 13) > 2pts
430 > fast shot 11 > 2pts
505 > gravitate 2.58 NAP > 1pt
540 > kyzer chief 10.5 > 5pts
NAP > black cadillac > 2pt win
NB > swincombe flame> 2pt win
Double > 2pts
* staking plan used
Thursday, 19 April 2012
Friday, 30 March 2012
day 1 results with staking plan
had a quick check at the betfair SPs and by using these I would have backed 26 of the 27 selections (avoiding the 1/4 shot!)
total stakes would have been 75pts
total returns would have been 131.1pts less 5% commission for example = 124.5pts
profit thus was 49.5pts or 66%
so a level stakes profit of 14% would have been 66% by using a staking plan that reflects my picks / winners which are often in the range of 7/1 or so
clear indicator that good days will be very good! obviously those days where the mid range picks don't win will suffer as the stakes will rack up quickly but I will keep an eye on both of these as the staking plan is sensible if the results continue like this
total stakes would have been 75pts
total returns would have been 131.1pts less 5% commission for example = 124.5pts
profit thus was 49.5pts or 66%
so a level stakes profit of 14% would have been 66% by using a staking plan that reflects my picks / winners which are often in the range of 7/1 or so
clear indicator that good days will be very good! obviously those days where the mid range picks don't win will suffer as the stakes will rack up quickly but I will keep an eye on both of these as the staking plan is sensible if the results continue like this
staking plan
usually do level stakes as it makes sense to me and easy to calculate etc etc.. but I have been toying with a simple staking plan where I increase stakes on my longer prices as I do tend to avoid anything that's evens or less and do well with horses that are in the 5-10/1 range it seems
I look for these when picking as the lower strike rate is offset hugely by the returns - I've never really seen the point in backing shorties as they don't win enough and the returns are often rubbish
I've also become a win only backer as I rarely back each way unless there is a good outsider up against a particularly strong fav etc
anyway, the stakes I'm thinking of are as follows >
under evens > no bet
evens to 2/1 > 1pt bet
2/1 to 3/1 > 2pt bet
3/1 to 4/1 > 3pt bet
4/1 to 5/1 > 4pt bet
5/1 to 10/1 > 5pt bet
10/1 to 20/1 > 2pt bet
20/1 + > 1pt bet
* this will show the best returns when I hit my usual long-term averages which is a strike rate of 20% or so and average odds of about 7/1 > this should equate to a profit obviously!
* depends on the meetings and types of races too
I look for these when picking as the lower strike rate is offset hugely by the returns - I've never really seen the point in backing shorties as they don't win enough and the returns are often rubbish
I've also become a win only backer as I rarely back each way unless there is a good outsider up against a particularly strong fav etc
anyway, the stakes I'm thinking of are as follows >
under evens > no bet
evens to 2/1 > 1pt bet
2/1 to 3/1 > 2pt bet
3/1 to 4/1 > 3pt bet
4/1 to 5/1 > 4pt bet
5/1 to 10/1 > 5pt bet
10/1 to 20/1 > 2pt bet
20/1 + > 1pt bet
* this will show the best returns when I hit my usual long-term averages which is a strike rate of 20% or so and average odds of about 7/1 > this should equate to a profit obviously!
* depends on the meetings and types of races too
thursday 29 mar
decent e/w shouts in brackets after selections...
FFOS LAS
220 > keep kicking 2.38 (and he's dreaming)
250 > presented 4.4
325 > rash moment 6.2
400 > harouet 3.25
430 > lava lamp 8.4 (pure faith)
505 > dollydo 15
535 > boyfromnowhere 4.2
NEWCASTLE
210 > brandon thomas 15
240 > transact 4
310 > ballade de la mer 3.25
345 > montoya's son 3.25
420 > snooker 7.5
450 > rolecarr 4
525 > folie a deux 9
KEMPTON
555 > tombi
625 > spartan spirit
655 > qeethaara
725 > the absent mare
755 > dartford
825 > colour guard
855 > the bay bandit
WOLVES
335 > restless bay
410 > harare
440 > ed de gas
515 > sir george
545 > odd ball
615 > dubonny
NAP > odd ball (wolves 545)
NB > rolecarr (newc 450)
2 x win singles, win double
FFOS LAS
220 > keep kicking 2.38 (and he's dreaming)
250 > presented 4.4
325 > rash moment 6.2
400 > harouet 3.25
430 > lava lamp 8.4 (pure faith)
505 > dollydo 15
535 > boyfromnowhere 4.2
NEWCASTLE
210 > brandon thomas 15
240 > transact 4
310 > ballade de la mer 3.25
345 > montoya's son 3.25
420 > snooker 7.5
450 > rolecarr 4
525 > folie a deux 9
KEMPTON
555 > tombi
625 > spartan spirit
655 > qeethaara
725 > the absent mare
755 > dartford
825 > colour guard
855 > the bay bandit
WOLVES
335 > restless bay
410 > harare
440 > ed de gas
515 > sir george
545 > odd ball
615 > dubonny
NAP > odd ball (wolves 545)
NB > rolecarr (newc 450)
2 x win singles, win double
Monday, 26 March 2012
horse-racing tips
regular horse racing tips from the UK and occasionally from australia
will post the meeting and race of course and all stakes will be level (ie 1pt) although I might run a staking sytem too to see if it produces better results
will be picking all races so there will be odds-on shots in there but I will also pick a nap and next best daily and will run 2 x singles and a double on these too
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